Oil price fantasies

Listening to RTE this morning I was struck by a fantasy spoken about Aer Lingus. It’s a fantasy repeated often with all the economic crisis issues going on, the fantasy;

…when Oil prices go back down!

Oil prices going down is a fantasy! There is no motovation, nor reason for oil prices to drop a significant amount to make a difference. Oil is a supply and demand issue, and will stay high, with MAYBE a minor drop in price in the near term. At least until the next price rise some where in the area of 150$ a barrel by next summer.

The one thing that seems to be forgotten is that oil is a finite resource that has been subsidized to remain low, like heroin, we have become addicted and completely dependent. And when we seek to ween ourselves off it to renewables, the price is reduced to make the switch too expensive.

Oil is running out, and will continue to rise, and no fantasy will dilute that reality.

Ireland in Isolation

This article highlights a danger for Ireland Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization. Ireland is an Island! Almost everyone I’ve met in Ireland never think of Ireland as an Island (the center of the universe maybe, just not an Island). We have become so complacent about the availability of foreign goods and produce, we have forgotten that without cheap oil, we will have to live within our own agricultural means. Something the Lisbon “Yes” folks don’t seem to get yet. They believe that the mobile economy will balance the trade products and that putting fishermen and farmers out of business will not harm Ireland as a whole. Cheap oil has made this possible, and is no more. No more cheap fruit, and beef, no more massive highways and individual car ownership.

John Lennon sang Imagine, just Imagine no Oil.

Global Warming Scandal

Having watched a program on E4 about the ‘The Global Warming Scandal’ I was gobsmacked, while I believe both sides of the argument tend to cherry pick the data, and that I believe that no-one has yet put all the environmental variables into a proper simulation of the environment (a simulation not a model) There was one point that I got out of this program. That the Africans are being suppressed from exploiting their own resources, coal and oil and that they are being denied their own industrial revolution and western prosperity. That they are forced to rely on unreliable Solar and wind-power for their electricity. And to this I want to rebuke.

First off the example of solar and wind power is presented from one of the worst and most incompetent installations of a solar panel I have ever seen. The presentation indicated that they had only the ability to run a refrigerator or a lightbulb. The first question you should ask is this, why do you need a light bulb in the day, the second is why only one solar panel, and then where is this an example of wind power. A very poor example altogether. But beyond this is another issue, and one that will completely underline the real purpose of this program. Economic viability!

Lets assume that these poorer countries did exploit their resources. The first issue is who will mine their coal, since these countries will either have to borrow money to finance the effort, or that some private firm will exploit this effort. This done, they will have to finance the building of power plants to burn the coal, building them near the major population centers is common. Or they will have to have a private industry build them.

Now one, any loan for these countries will require payment for loans, repayment in what ever resource the country might have, this falls squarely on the one resource that they were intended to exploit for the benefit of the country in question. Building the power generation facilities fall under this same problem.

Two, mining and generation provided by private industries will seek profit. And while mining will provide a re-sellable resource, it’s mostly not going to be profitable selling to the countries that need it. So power plants will either be small, located near large population centers, or non existent. And even if electricity were abundant in the cities, there would never be a power-grid built to supply electrify to this poor medical facility which was used as an example of poor solar installation. Because it would not be profitable! SO this would not solve the energy crisis for this instance.

Beyond this, the likelihood of a single lump of coal ever reaching an African power-plant is nearly zero. As the economics of energy predicates that the most willing to pay, will drive the price. And the western world will always be the ones to pay. This will drive the price of coal beyond the ability of the Africans to buy their own resources back from the mining companies.

Therefore the purpose of this program is to exploit African resources for the western world. Nothing else could be so clear. It completely removes creditability from this program. Forget the scientist’s and experts presented in this program, the underlining meaning is not to preserve the jobs and careers of Global Warming researchers (a poor point as they did not present any wealthy researchers), but to prevent the loss of jobs in the oil, gas and coal energy industries. To prevent any disturbance to the status quo in the wealthiest industry on the planet.

UPDATE:

Royal Society vice-president Sir David Read said: “People should not be misled by those that exploit the complexity of the issue, seeking to distort the science and deny the seriousness of the potential consequences of climate change.

UPDATE 2: ‘No Sun link’ to climate change is another nail in the coffin of this film.

Update 3: it just keeps coming Prominent Skeptics Organizations and their funding sources.

Update 4: The Truth About Global Warming

Windpower and Solar face uphill battle in energy land

In this age when oil and gas, nuclear and coal and turf are being pushed as the ‘Only realistic’ source of energy for the future. The real issue is not that solar and wind power can’t supply the current and future energy requirements. It’s that it can’t supply the energy needs in the same way as is currently provided! A centralized, controlled, and profited by, a central authority or business.

Solar and wind are distributed power sources. Shoe horning solar and wind into the monopoly energy scheme is impractical. This is an example in miniature of what wind energy represents, independence; Handheld windmills. Now I’m not claiming that we need to carry iPods with little windmills attached. What this presents is that this device is independent of the power-grid, the tit we are all used to nurse from.

It is not impossible to supply a few hundred houses from wind, wave or solar power. You just can’t do this by pumping this energy into a national grid. If each community were wired into a local wind, solar or wave system, a community could become independent from the energy monopolist.

And that is also why these resources are never developed, monopolies do not see the profit for themselves, and resist competition from any other alternative.

Centralization is control.

Time for us to seek energy independance. Think Solar wind and wave.

H.R. 5875 and a hope in Hell

I find this amusing that The Iraq War Powers Repeal Act of 2006, H.R. 5875 essentially is taking George Bush at his word from his “mission accomplished” in May 2003. In an argument I used on this blog along time ago I mentioned that if we had already declared a victory, the GOP and Bush could save face and withdraw. The point is that this war has never been over liberating the Iraqi people, or removing sadam, or WMD’s. If this bill ever gets passed it will be a clear illustration of that fact. Hence it will never get out of house of representatives.

But there is still a hope in hell.