In the current political race to the U.S. Presidency religion has become a major issue with Clinton, McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Obama, that some of them have even gone so far as to profess a disbelief in Evolution as a true measure of the religious convictions. Now one of the primary reasons politicians proudly display their religious credentials is the mistaken belief of the religiously deluded that the politician in question somehow identifies them with a higher moral standard, and therefore are more honest and trustworthy.
This couldn’t be further from the truth, as any rational person knows, the very fact that they ARE Politicians precludes any guise of honesty and trust. People who’s only desire and chosen career path is the control of other people’s lives under the rule of governmental coverage, masking as ‘leaders’ their inability to perform any other honest work. The Constitution of the U.S., and for that matter, any other country, is the basis of control of the government power, and not to control the population governed.
So the question is, why would anyone credit a politicians religion with any value? Beats me!
When Hillary declares Hillary Wins New Hampshire! don’t believe it, she tied with Obama. They both earned the same number of electors from the New Hampshire primary. But Hillary would be hurt by declaring it a tie, and it would only serve to boost Obama in the future. Talk about spin, but that is the nature of an electoral system that is fundamentally broken and corrupt.
I stumbled upon this article about Who Will Win the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election?. And realized that what they we claiming here was not a predictive method, but merely these people’s attempt to fit, to pattern match, ‘Presidential Electability’ factors to winners of elections. And making a half hearted attempt to apply these historical factors to up coming election. I’ll give you some examples, these are the factors they used in a previous ‘prediction’ Who Should Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election? they used factors like
if the candidate served as Director of Central Intelligence (e.g., George H. W. Bush), was a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces (e.g., Dwight D. Eisenhower), or ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons (e.g., Harry S. Truman),
as you can see such ‘factors’ could only be applied to demonstrate why Truman beat Dewey, not as a general rule that proves the model.The factors used in the 2008 ‘prediction’ only suggest combinations of Presidential candidates , but can not predict them, because the factors are based on historical artifacts as part of the pattern matching, factors that can not be predicted in advance.
With that in mind there are no factors for emotional content, or future historical events.
They further go on to make this statement, We assume that major party primary voters are rational and will understand the empirical power of our algorithm. and we all know that voters for both nominees or candidates are not rational. And with a model that does not factor the level of ‘rational’ or irrationality of the electoral process, they can not forecast or predict. In other words, they can’t put their money where their mouths are.
They make another bold statement Readers of this paper could make a lot of money at Intrade.com if our assumption that major party primary voters are rational is correct. but you don’t see them making money.
The old adage is this, never take investment advice from a poor broker.
And when we seek leaders, in our politicians, or in any person during a crisis and even even in a fellow worker in our day to day work lives. Hero’s brighten our lives, lighten our loads and renew our spirits. On the average we never seem to have enough hero’s, and we often seek them in our dreams, the theater, and on the television.
In this coming election season, the hopes and dreams of the world seek a hero in Barack, Hillary, Fred, Ron, Dennis, Mike and Al and/or any of the rest. And the goal of those politicians will be to appear to be, those hero’s, to win our hearts and minds. But hero’s aren’t heros by selling themselves, but by proving themselves, not by convincing us to trust them, but by earning our trust.
We shouldn’t be looking for the lesser of the evils, but the best hope for the future.
As I predicted Hillary has the fewest friends on Digg Candidates. I know that Hillary can’t win, so the Democrats will have to find someone who can.
As is the normal modus operandi for the Fianna Fáil, they have reneged on more of their election campaign promises, when Brian (can’t balance the books) Cowen announced that the tax cuts that they used to get reelected are now renounced. Brian has a 1 BILLION Euro surplus one year, and the next, they are struggling to give themselves a 14% pay raise. Where is all that money going, there can’t be that many brown envelopes in the entire country. I guess if you do your finances out of a suitcase full of money, anything is possible.
I have not predicted the race, but I am now concerned that the balance on Democrats in the House and Senate will not reach the goal of two thirds majority, veto override power, in Congress. With Hillary looking to win the democratic nomination and loosing the Presidential race to ANY GOP NOMINEE. Congress will have to buck-up and grow some in a genuine effort to bring the U.S. back into a Constitutional Checks and Balances which forms the foundation of the Republic.
This GOP win shouldn’t happen, but Hillary is tainted by real or illusionary propaganda that the republicans have been seeding for years. And because she holds the largest bag of money, she could buy her own nomination. But in an article earlier this month, she would need to pull 24% of the female REPUBLICAN voters, and I don’t believe that she could pull 24% of the female DEMOCRATIC vote. She just can’t win, in fact I’m sure the democratic party heads know she can’t win. I suspect that they don’t want to win the presidential race and face the albatross that Iraq has become.
So, unless Al Gore throws his hat into the ring, or gets drafted (and maybe linked with Edwards as Vice President) the Democrats will loose the Presidential race.
The real goal for the Democrats will be to blast the Republicans out of the House and Senate.
I’m going to warmup my crystal ball and predict the presidential outcomes for the U.S. elections. But I’m not going to be politically correct.
Hillary Clinton is a sure bet to be nominated to be the Democratic candidate. But she can’t be elected to President in a general election, and will loose to ANY GOP candidate. Not because she is a woman, but because the GOP has been poisoning the internet with anti Hillary propaganda for years with ‘she kicked the dog’ stories. There is an outside possibility she could be a vice-presidential running mate, but I don’t think she would like the second seat.
Barack Obama looks to be a good Democratic nominee. But he will loose to ANY GOP candidate. He will not be elected by the U.S. population, being black will not be too much of a hinderance, but not an asset, being raised Muslim will be brought up, and September 11 will be on everyones mind. Unfortunately Obama could prevent a democratic presidency even if nominated as a vice-presidential candidate.
Al Gore is the strongest Democratic candidate, but he has not even declared, and due to internal political infighting he probably won’t get the nomination even having won the majority popular vote in 2004, loosing to George Bush only due to illegal vote rigging in Florida by Jeb Bush, brother of the
John Edwards would make a good running mate. But no one knows him as a presidential candidate.
Colin Powell would make a great democratic vice-presidential candidate, but he may be too tainted by Bush to be of great value.
Unfortunately the other potential candidates will only be potential vice running mates and nothing more.
The next prophecy I cast will be the GOP candidates