Pattern Matching vs Prediction

I stumbled upon this article about Who Will Win the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election?. And realized that what they we claiming here was not a predictive method, but merely these people’s attempt to fit, to pattern match, ‘Presidential Electability’ factors to winners of elections. And making a half hearted attempt to apply these historical factors to up coming election. I’ll give you some examples, these are the factors they used in a previous ‘prediction’ Who Should Win the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election? they used factors like

if the candidate served as Director of Central Intelligence (e.g., George H. W. Bush), was a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces (e.g., Dwight D. Eisenhower), or ordered the combat use of nuclear weapons (e.g., Harry S. Truman),

as you can see such ‘factors’ could only be applied to demonstrate why Truman beat Dewey, not as a general rule that proves the model.The factors used in the 2008 ‘prediction’ only suggest combinations of Presidential candidates , but can not predict them, because the factors are based on historical artifacts as part of the pattern matching, factors that can not be predicted in advance.

With that in mind there are no factors for emotional content, or future historical events.

They further go on to make this statement, We assume that major party primary voters are rational and will understand the empirical power of our algorithm. and we all know that voters for both nominees or candidates are not rational. And with a model that does not factor the level of ‘rational’ or irrationality of the electoral process, they can not forecast or predict. In other words, they can’t put their money where their mouths are.

They make another bold statement Readers of this paper could make a lot of money at if our assumption that major party primary voters are rational is correct. but you don’t see them making money.

The old adage is this, never take investment advice from a poor broker.

My thoughts on Gambling Ads!

Gambling ads ban to be scrapped

When are we finally going to pass a law on how to wipe your ass? Do you know how much toilet paper we waste in this country? Think of the emotional harm brought to our young people fondling their behinds excessively? Think of the environmental harm we are doing by cutting down all the trees to wipe our collective behinds?

Why stop with telling people what they can do? Why not publish a book on how everything should be done. That sounds like a ‘free’ country now, doesn’t it?

Wait, They have published books on this The Bible and the Quran!

What happened to Freedom, what are we fighting for all over the world? To bring the world under a collective control? Sounds more like religious restriction and control than freedom to me!

Isn’t that what Jihad is?

Gay Pedophile Republicans are anti-Gambing

As for the “must have legislation” in the Republican congress GOP Gay Pedophile Tom Foley is less important than an Internet gambling ban bill in the eyes of the Republican Leadership.

Which do you rate higher, Child molesters, or poker players?

How do you like the Moral GOP pushing their morality on the american people?

UPDATE: Looks like the Republican morals are intack, they really only needed to be bribed with enought money or; How horse racing avoided new US internet betting law

UPDATE: If you need more reading look here THE LAW IS DOOMED – ONLY QUESTION IS HOW LONG IT TAKES!