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Oil price fantasies

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Listening to RTE this morning I was struck by a fantasy spoken about Aer Lingus. It’s a fantasy repeated often with all the economic crisis issues going on, the fantasy;

…when Oil prices go back down!

Oil prices going down is a fantasy! There is no motovation, nor reason for oil prices to drop a significant amount to make a difference. Oil is a supply and demand issue, and will stay high, with MAYBE a minor drop in price in the near term. At least until the next price rise some where in the area of 150$ a barrel by next summer.

The one thing that seems to be forgotten is that oil is a finite resource that has been subsidized to remain low, like heroin, we have become addicted and completely dependent. And when we seek to ween ourselves off it to renewables, the price is reduced to make the switch too expensive.

Oil is running out, and will continue to rise, and no fantasy will dilute that reality.

Ireland in Isolation

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This article highlights a danger for Ireland Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization. Ireland is an Island! Almost everyone I’ve met in Ireland never think of Ireland as an Island (the center of the universe maybe, just not an Island). We have become so complacent about the availability of foreign goods and produce, we have forgotten that without cheap oil, we will have to live within our own agricultural means. Something the Lisbon “Yes” folks don’t seem to get yet. They believe that the mobile economy will balance the trade products and that putting fishermen and farmers out of business will not harm Ireland as a whole. Cheap oil has made this possible, and is no more. No more cheap fruit, and beef, no more massive highways and individual car ownership.

John Lennon sang Imagine, just Imagine no Oil.