Oil price fantasies

Listening to RTE this morning I was struck by a fantasy spoken about Aer Lingus. It’s a fantasy repeated often with all the economic crisis issues going on, the fantasy;

…when Oil prices go back down!

Oil prices going down is a fantasy! There is no motovation, nor reason for oil prices to drop a significant amount to make a difference. Oil is a supply and demand issue, and will stay high, with MAYBE a minor drop in price in the near term. At least until the next price rise some where in the area of 150$ a barrel by next summer.

The one thing that seems to be forgotten is that oil is a finite resource that has been subsidized to remain low, like heroin, we have become addicted and completely dependent. And when we seek to ween ourselves off it to renewables, the price is reduced to make the switch too expensive.

Oil is running out, and will continue to rise, and no fantasy will dilute that reality.

A glimmer of Democracy

This article is amusing as a Sudden outbreak of democracy baffles US pundits. I was chilled by the observation that the Media and Pundits were so amazed at the opposition reaction to the Congressional bail out. The observation of this writer, was spot on with the snobs being snubbed by the general population. What would happen if the banks holding flaky mortgages failed, what if all the marginal mortgage holders were just granted the properties held by the banks. and then allow the banks fail. Wouldn’t that be real justice for corrupt banking and financial managers?


“Your representative owes you,
not his industry only, but his judgment;
and he betrays, instead of serving you,
if he sacrifices it to your opinion.”

Edmund Burke
(1729-1797) Irish-born British statesman, parliamentary orator, and political thinker

Congress must make some hard decisions and it’s now time to standup and make them.

Delusional greed in the financial sector

At a previous position, I worked with a major financial company. Insurance, investing, retirement and what not. And while attending a meeting with the business ‘customers’ of the ID department. I was nearly physically sickened by their use of the terminology ‘manufacturing a new product’. This is a financial institute, not a manufacture of real products. So when they created a product they meant a paper house contract. The sickening part was how they declare how much money the company would make from the future ‘customers’ of the product. Not that the ‘customer’ wouldn’t have earned some modest income from the ‘product’, it was just that the vast majority of any profits would go to the company, with the customer taking all of the risks. More over, the ‘creator’ of this new product would be richly rewarded in advance of any company profits from the product hence creating a motivation to ‘create’ more of these types of ‘products’. Greed, promoting Delusions that reward more greed. This is true nature of the financial issues we face and any congressman claiming market forces will fix the problems is blind AND stupid and otherwise, just a fool, and should be removed from office.


If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
James Madison

So a Free market we cannot afford. We must have government to control the Raw Greed on Wallstreet!

Dell to Close Limerick Plant

Dell has discovered a clever way to close it’s Limerick as Dell plans to sell plants worldwide. The limerick Plant has been known for some time to be less profitable than those in the far east and eastern Europe. When it comes to purchasing the Limerick plant there will be no takers and it will have to close. Dell wins, as it will not have to give up it’s corporate tax breaks, and doesn’t look like the villain.

Ireland in Isolation

This article highlights a danger for Ireland Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization. Ireland is an Island! Almost everyone I’ve met in Ireland never think of Ireland as an Island (the center of the universe maybe, just not an Island). We have become so complacent about the availability of foreign goods and produce, we have forgotten that without cheap oil, we will have to live within our own agricultural means. Something the Lisbon “Yes” folks don’t seem to get yet. They believe that the mobile economy will balance the trade products and that putting fishermen and farmers out of business will not harm Ireland as a whole. Cheap oil has made this possible, and is no more. No more cheap fruit, and beef, no more massive highways and individual car ownership.

John Lennon sang Imagine, just Imagine no Oil.

Monopoly’s new game, or how to profit from Global warming.

Having seen the Christmas Ad’s starting up, and this years crop of children being introduced into corporate finance in the form of the old board game of Monopoly, I was inspired to create a new variant Global Warming Monopoly What a great new way to teach our children how to profit from the future disasters of our new world.

Shannon Airport

Any person, let alone any politician in Ireland claiming that the closure of Shannon Airport hasn’t been ‘on the books‘ of this government for the last 10 years is either lying, or is ignorant of the truth. Ever since the ‘Open Skies’ policy the writing has been on the walls of every government building, ‘Dublin is Ireland‘ and Shannon is just an inconvenient problem that will now disappear. Wait until Aer Lingus begins to remove the Shannon/Dublin, and the Cork/Dublin routes. Then you will see that the air routes are more valuable to the airline, than the actual flights. Then you will know that Aer Lingus will begin to be sold off piecemeal just like the Eircom debacle.

Please Vote for me because…

Please Vote for us because …

Because I did not take bribes (don’t you believe him?)

Because I don’t burn cars, sell drugs, or support crime (don’t you feel safer?)

Because I don’t keep patients waiting on gurneys (just don’t get sick!)

Because I’m not continuing with stealth taxes (I can feel that extra change in my pocket)

Because I won’t shoot my foot off (I’m from stab city)

and

we won’t continue to give away public land to private Hospital developers as the next step in privatizing health-care

we won’t give away more public services like Eircom, and Aerlingus.

we won’t build and give away more public roads and bridges to NTR

we won’t continue to support monopolistic private businesses like VHI,
Eircom ( want to buy some shares?), NTR, etc

And above all, We will restore the Freedom of Information act, and become truly transparent!

Does anyone want to buy a bridge?

Global Warming Scandal

Having watched a program on E4 about the ‘The Global Warming Scandal’ I was gobsmacked, while I believe both sides of the argument tend to cherry pick the data, and that I believe that no-one has yet put all the environmental variables into a proper simulation of the environment (a simulation not a model) There was one point that I got out of this program. That the Africans are being suppressed from exploiting their own resources, coal and oil and that they are being denied their own industrial revolution and western prosperity. That they are forced to rely on unreliable Solar and wind-power for their electricity. And to this I want to rebuke.

First off the example of solar and wind power is presented from one of the worst and most incompetent installations of a solar panel I have ever seen. The presentation indicated that they had only the ability to run a refrigerator or a lightbulb. The first question you should ask is this, why do you need a light bulb in the day, the second is why only one solar panel, and then where is this an example of wind power. A very poor example altogether. But beyond this is another issue, and one that will completely underline the real purpose of this program. Economic viability!

Lets assume that these poorer countries did exploit their resources. The first issue is who will mine their coal, since these countries will either have to borrow money to finance the effort, or that some private firm will exploit this effort. This done, they will have to finance the building of power plants to burn the coal, building them near the major population centers is common. Or they will have to have a private industry build them.

Now one, any loan for these countries will require payment for loans, repayment in what ever resource the country might have, this falls squarely on the one resource that they were intended to exploit for the benefit of the country in question. Building the power generation facilities fall under this same problem.

Two, mining and generation provided by private industries will seek profit. And while mining will provide a re-sellable resource, it’s mostly not going to be profitable selling to the countries that need it. So power plants will either be small, located near large population centers, or non existent. And even if electricity were abundant in the cities, there would never be a power-grid built to supply electrify to this poor medical facility which was used as an example of poor solar installation. Because it would not be profitable! SO this would not solve the energy crisis for this instance.

Beyond this, the likelihood of a single lump of coal ever reaching an African power-plant is nearly zero. As the economics of energy predicates that the most willing to pay, will drive the price. And the western world will always be the ones to pay. This will drive the price of coal beyond the ability of the Africans to buy their own resources back from the mining companies.

Therefore the purpose of this program is to exploit African resources for the western world. Nothing else could be so clear. It completely removes creditability from this program. Forget the scientist’s and experts presented in this program, the underlining meaning is not to preserve the jobs and careers of Global Warming researchers (a poor point as they did not present any wealthy researchers), but to prevent the loss of jobs in the oil, gas and coal energy industries. To prevent any disturbance to the status quo in the wealthiest industry on the planet.

UPDATE:

Royal Society vice-president Sir David Read said: “People should not be misled by those that exploit the complexity of the issue, seeking to distort the science and deny the seriousness of the potential consequences of climate change.

UPDATE 2: ‘No Sun link’ to climate change is another nail in the coffin of this film.

Update 3: it just keeps coming Prominent Skeptics Organizations and their funding sources.

Update 4: The Truth About Global Warming

Perceptions of the Stockmarket falling

I love this quote from Jose Vistan of AB Capital Securities from World stock drop hits second week

“You throw away technical and fundamentals out of the window,” he explained. “Emotions are the ones driving share prices right now.”

The stock market has ALWAYS been about emotions. The entire market is all about perceptions, one’s perceived value of a stock or commodity. If this is the first time Jose has learned this, he should go back to school until he learns this.

Windpower and Solar face uphill battle in energy land

In this age when oil and gas, nuclear and coal and turf are being pushed as the ‘Only realistic’ source of energy for the future. The real issue is not that solar and wind power can’t supply the current and future energy requirements. It’s that it can’t supply the energy needs in the same way as is currently provided! A centralized, controlled, and profited by, a central authority or business.

Solar and wind are distributed power sources. Shoe horning solar and wind into the monopoly energy scheme is impractical. This is an example in miniature of what wind energy represents, independence; Handheld windmills. Now I’m not claiming that we need to carry iPods with little windmills attached. What this presents is that this device is independent of the power-grid, the tit we are all used to nurse from.

It is not impossible to supply a few hundred houses from wind, wave or solar power. You just can’t do this by pumping this energy into a national grid. If each community were wired into a local wind, solar or wave system, a community could become independent from the energy monopolist.

And that is also why these resources are never developed, monopolies do not see the profit for themselves, and resist competition from any other alternative.

Centralization is control.

Time for us to seek energy independance. Think Solar wind and wave.

Tax Cut Reality Check

Here is the real question, has any party in Irish history ever delivered real tax cuts after they have been elected?

While I voted in the last local elections in Cork a few years, my poor election memory has raised the the yellow card with regards to political promises. They never seem to happen.

So with that in mind, can you really believe any politician, or any party when they propose a tax cut?

Could it really only be an attempt to buy votes?

I’ll cash in that reality check!

NO, I don’t believe them.

and

YES, this is just idol political jockeying.

I guess we will just have to tighten our belts again.